Talks
The current diplomatic process surrounding Russia’s war on Ukraine cannot be accurately described as meaningful negotiations between the principal actors. Four key parties—the United States, Europe, Ukraine and Russia—are never in direct, multilateral negotiation with one another. Discussions occur in bilateral or trilateral formats (U.S.–Europe–Ukraine) or through intermediaries, and the United States also engages in direct talks with Russia. But there has been no sustained, comprehensive negotiation table where all four actors are engaging in direct, shared dialogue about a settlement.
From a European perspective, the substance of what passes for “negotiations” is not an effort to reach a settlement that ends the war. Instead, it is a political mechanism primarily useful for managing Western domestic politics and reducing the harm to Ukraine posed by shifts in U.S. policy.
The Kremlin’s own rhetoric underscores this reality. Putin talks frequently (and unreliably) of how easily Russia is destroying Ukrainian elite formations on the battlefield. In a wide-ranging interview with TASS Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR, delivered a pretty standard line:
Настанет тот день, когда Вооруженные силы Украины потеряют способность организованно вести оборону и вынуждены будут сдаться. И тогда уже никто не сможет помешать мирному урегулированию украинского конфликта
The day will come when the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose the ability to defend themselves in an organised way and will be forced to surrender. And then nobody will be able to hinder the peaceful regulation of the Ukraine conflict any longer
Source: https://tass.ru/politika/25951187
(In other parts of the interview he describes a really awkward party with representatives of MI6, CIA and 42 other agencies to celebrate the 105th anniversary of the founding of the SVR. Armando Iannucci needs to make a film of this: https://tass.ru/politika/25954169)
Essentially, Russia thinks Ukraine will collapse first and then negotiations can begin. Until then, I would say that we have talks but not negotiations. These discussions may serve a purpose, including limiting how much harm a change in U.S. policy could bring to Ukraine and how much advantage they give to Russia. But they are not negotiations designed to produce a real peace agreement.
For Ukrainians, I imagine this is a difficult reality to navigate. Many correctly discount diplomatic statements as performative, yet Ukraine genuinely needs a ceasefire and a pause in fighting to regroup militarily, preserve lives, and stabilise. Given Merz, Von der Leyen and others’ impressive, if rather ugly, success in ensuring 90 billion euros in financial support for Ukraine, Europe is clearly committed to not letting Ukraine collapse. But that won’t be enough.
The core question is this: who will impose conditions that compel Russia to the table in earnest? Will anyone? Unless such conditions are imposed, whether through proper enforcement of sanctions, decisive military setbacks, or through unified, credible deterrent postures by Europe these talks will continue to revolve around managing external audiences rather than resolving the war.
In the meantime, the effort must remain focussed on ensuring the symbolic aspect of these talks does not lead to concrete harm for Ukraine. Right now, the only way they would bring the war closer to an end is if they created conditions to force Ukraine to surrender and even that is still very unlikely, given Ukraine’s ferocity in defending its right to exist and not live as an enslaved people under occupation.
Success in this phase should be judged modestly: by whether European states can avoid sudden systemic catastrophe on the continent and create space to take bolder action. Absent a coherent political will, the process will continue as a ritual of engagement without strategic progress.
Peace-making requires agency over outcomes and it requires realism, not Realism. I have no idea what the next year will hold but unless European strategy towards imposing costs on Russia changes considerably, I don’t think it will bring even an imperfect peace for the people who actually deserve it: Ukrainians.